The ARM architecture dominates mobile computing. It is used in all popular mobile phones and in a huge percentage of battery powered devices generally. This is due partly to its good overall performance, but especially due to its performance per watt expended. ARM chips consume very little power when compared to x86, and ARM's power consumption still excels even when compared to other RISC chips. At one time even Intel manufactured ARM chips, the result of its purchase of the DEC semiconductor business and its excellent StrongARM design. In 2006 Intel sold its ARM products to Marvell Semiconductor, committing to x86 for every segment of the computing market.
Its easy to assume that this state of affairs will continue, and that Intel will never successfully compete in the mobile market. I suspect that is too simplistic an assumption. There are two main sources of power dissipation in modern microprocessors: the power consumed by transistors actively switching, and the power lost to leakage current.
x86 vs ARM: Active Power
It requires power to switch a CMOS transistor 0->1 or 1->0, so one way to reduce power consumption is to have fewer transistors and to switch them at a lower frequency. x86 is at a disadvantage here compared to ARM, which Intel and AMD's design teams have to cover with extra work and cleverness. The vagaries of the x86 instruction set burdens it with hardware logic which ARM does not require.
- Since the Pentium Pro, Intel has decoded complex x86 instructions down to simpler micro-ops for execution. AMD uses a similar technique. This instruction decode logic is active whenever new opcodes are fetched from RAM. ARM has no need for this logic, as even its alternate Thumb encoding is a relatively straightforward mapping to regular ARM instructions.
- x86_32 exposes only a few registers to the compiler. To achieve good performance, x86 CPUs implement a much larger number of hardware registers which are dynamically renamed as needed. ARM does not require such extensive register renaming logic.
- Every ARM instruction is conditional, and simple if-then-else constructs can be handled without branches. x86 relies much more heavily on branches, but frequent branches can stall the pipeline on a processor. Good performance in x86 requires extensive branch prediction hardware, where ARM is served with a far simpler implementation.
x86 vs ARM: Leakage Current
Leakage current became a significant contributor to power consumption in 2003 with the move from 0.18 to 0.13 micron feature sizes, and has become more significant in each subsequent generation. The industry is now moving into 0.032 micron technologies.
A capacitor is formed when two conductive materials are separated by an insulator, called the dielectric. The capacitance is determined by the quality of the insulating material, quantified by the dielectric constant k. Higher k means more capacitance. "Leakage" is current which is able to flow out of the ASIC transistors and into the silicon substrate. To reduce the current leaking out, one needs to make a better dielectric between the transistor and the bulk of the silicon. This is generically referred to as high-k silicon technology.
As we're now talking about silicon fabrication techniques, we have to start talking about Intel specifically rather than the x86 architecture in general. Intel began using a high-k dielectric in production in 2007, during the 45 nm generation of parts. The rest of the industry has been experimenting with such materials, but is only now rolling it into the 32 nm generation. Intel hasn't stopped working on the technique, their 32 nm process benefits from the last several years of experience.
x86 vs ARM: Predicting The Future
Leakage current becomes more significant with each generation of process technology. The power consumed by actively switching transistors has been radically reduced over the last few years, leaving leakage as the more significant source of current consumption. It is difficult to estimate how serious the effect is, but this article from March 2008 shows leakage current starting out relatively insignificant in 180 nm silicon but growing to nearly 40% of total power consumption in a 50 nm process.
So far as I can see, this trend will continue. Leakage current will soon become the dominant factor in CPU power consumption. In fact, in 32 nm processes it might already be the primary factor. This is where the game changes: the advantage for total power consumption shifts away from the efficiency of the CPU architecture and design, and to the process technology of the fab. Presumably, this trend informed Intel's decision to sell their ARM assets to Marvell: there is little reason to enrich a competitor if the advantages of doing so will diminish over time.
There is still room for clever design, of course. To reduce active power consumption, processor designs have long stopped the clock to unused portion of the CPU. To reduce leakage current, AMD is taking the next step to actually remove the power supply to those portions of the CPU. For ARM, that design choice makes even more sense. ARM has no control over the fab, their designs have to minimize assumptions about the underlying silicon technology.
Right now ARM reigns supreme in the mobile space, but the strengths which gave it an advantage over x86 are rapidly becoming less compelling. Having to compete directly on silicon process sophistication moves the game onto Intel's turf, which Intel is happy to capitalize on with its Medfield platform. Its a great time to be in the mobile space.
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